Trade Secrets

WTF Dailies August 11, 2025

Stock futures were steady on Monday, with Wall Street aiming for more record highs. Traders this week are eyeing a key inflation reading, the upcoming summit between President Trump and Russian President Putin

Sage Kakkat

11 Aug 2025 — 7 min read

Stock futures were steady on Monday, with Wall Street aiming for more record highs. Traders this week are eyeing a key inflation reading, the upcoming summit between President Trump and Russian President Putin, and an unusual sales arrangement between Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), and the US government.
Tech stocks overperformed as Apple (AAPL) posted its best week since 2020 on the heels of its White House spotlight with President Trump. Nvidia (NVDA) also closed Friday at a fresh record amid signals from Trump that Big Tech companies could avoid looming chip tariffs.
But in another tariff-related twist, reports Sunday said Nvidia and AMD have agreed to give the US government 15% of the money they make from selling certain computer chips to China.
Nvidia shares fell 0.7% before the bell on Monday, while AMD shares lost over 1%.
Trump has claimed that his tariffs are having a "huge positive impact on the stock market," though Wall Street is still navigating the twists and turns in his trade policy. His sweeping duties on dozens of trade partners went into effect last week. Now, investors are turning their attention to his previewed sectoral duties on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports, as well as a looming Tuesday deadline to extend a tariff pause with China.
Wall Street will get another glimpse this week into how those tariffs are affecting price pressures in the US. The Consumer Price Index is set for release on Tuesday, followed by the Producer Price Index on Thursday and retail sales data on Friday. Inflation reaccelerated in June, and economists have warned that the tariffs will likely continue to seep into price data in the coming months.
Meanwhile, gold futures (GC=F) fell in New York on Monday as traders waited for clarification from the White House over its tariff policy, after a US government agency ruled that 100-ounce and one-kilogram bullion bars would be subject to tariffs.
Most Asian stock markets were subdued on Monday as investors cautiously awaited updates on the U.S.-China tariff truce set to expire this week, while Australian shares rose to a record high ahead of the RBA’s expected rate cut.
Trading volumes remained thin due to a public holiday in Japan.
Wall Street ended higher on Friday with sharp weekly gains amid Federal Reserve rate cut hopes. U.S. stock index futures edged higher in Asian trading on Monday.
The U.S.-China tariff truce, which has kept escalating duties in check, is due to expire on August 12. While markets are hopeful it will be extended, uncertainty persists over the outcome.
The past week’s jump in Chinese exports, reported at 7.2% year-on-year for July, suggests exporters rushed to ship goods ahead of potential renewed tariffs.
Additionally, the U.S. implemented new “reciprocal” tariffs on August 7, targeting goods from countries with duties up to 50%.
China’s Shanghai Composite index edged 0.1% higher, while the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 gained 0.2%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index edged 0.1% lower on Monday.
Both South Korea’s KOSPI index and Singapore’s Straits Times Index were largely flat.
In corporate news, South Korea’s SK Hynix Inc (KS:000660) shares climbed more than 3% on Monday after a Reuters report said that the company expects the AI-focused memory chip market to grow 30% annually through 2030.
Elsewhere, the Philippines’ PSEi Composite fell 0.5%, while Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index jumped 0.6%.
Futures tied to India’s Nifty 50 edged 0.1% higher.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index rose as much as 0.5% to hit a fresh record high on Monday as investors bet the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates at its policy meeting this week.
Markets expect the central bank to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% on Tuesday.
The case for a cut has strengthened amid weak inflation prints and signs of a cooling labour market.

Market Close

Equity markets pulled back from early gains to close lower on Monday as markets await July consumer and producer inflation, both of which are expected to rise. Consumer staples and consumer discretionary stocks posted the largest gains, while the energy and real estate sectors trailed.
Bond yields ticked down with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.28%, below its July peak near 4.50%. In international markets, Asia finished mostly higher overnight as President Trump extended the pause on higher tariffs on imports from China for 90 days, as was widely expected.
The U.S. dollar advanced against major international currencies. In commodity markets, WTI oil traded higher as markets focus on U.S.-Russia talks scheduled to be held later this week.
The consumer price index (CPI) for July will be released on Tuesday, with forecasts calling for the headline figure to edge higher to 2.8% year-over-year. Inflation moderated through the first quarter of this year, falling to a four-year low of 2.3% in April, though the trend has reversed course since then, rising to 2.7% in June. Core CPI, which excludes more-volatile food and energy prices, is also expected to tick up to 3.0% annualized, from 2.9% in June.
The producer price index for July will be released on Thursday, with estimates pointing to wholesale inflation rising as well. These readings, if in line with estimates, likely reflect the early impact of tariffs, as higher import costs are at least partially passed along to consumers.
Bond markets are pricing in inflation of about 2.39% over the next 10 years, indicating that long-term inflation expectations remain relatively well anchored.
With 90% of S&P 500 companies reporting quarterly results, corporate earnings season is winding down. Earnings results have been stronger than expected, as 82% of S&P 500 companies have beaten analyst estimates, with an average upside surprise of 8.5%. As a result, forecasts for earnings growth have been revised sharply higher to 10.4%, from 3.8% at the end of the quarter, showing that prior downgrades appear to have been overdone.
Earnings growth has been led by the communications and technology sectors, both of which are higher more than 20% year-over-year. Performance has been broad as well, as earnings are down for just two of the 11 sectors — energy and materials — which represent less than 5% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500. Earnings growth is forecast to slow over the quarters ahead but still combine for 10.2% growth for 2025, aided by the first quarter's strong 12.8% rise.

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