Trade Secrets

WTF Dailies August 12, 2025

Stock futures mostly fell early Tuesday, as investors prepare for a fresh inflation report. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 39 points, or less than 0.1%. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.21%, while S&P 500 futures lost 0.12%.

Sage Kakkat

12 Aug 2025 — 6 min read

Stock futures mostly fell early Tuesday, as investors prepare for a fresh inflation report. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 39 points, or less than 0.1%. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.21%, while S&P 500 futures lost 0.12%.
Investors are keenly focused on Tuesday’s consumer price index report, hoping to gather potential insight into how the Federal Reserve will handle short-term interest rates, especially as the S&P 500 hovers near an all-time high. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect the index to advance 0.2% month-over-month in July, and 2.8% on an annualized basis. So-called core CPI, which strips out food and energy from the reading, is expected to climb 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year over year.
Investors largely ignored President Donald Trump’s decision earlier Monday to extend his 90-day pause on the higher levies on Chinese goods. “Investors seem to be betting on upcoming interest rate cuts and counting on them to counteract the drag from tariffs. We think it is too early to make that assumption,” said Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management. “The degree of tariff impacts and how long they will take to work through the economy remain open questions. In the meantime, high equity valuations may heighten the impact any negative developments have on stock returns.”
Wall Street will also parse Thursday’s producer price index report for a reading on wholesale inflation. Both reports come ahead of the Fed’s Jackson Hole gathering at the end of August, ahead of the central bank’s September policy meeting. The market is currently pricing in a nearly 87% chance of a rate cut next month
Asia-Pacific markets mostly closed higher Tuesday.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.25% to close at 24,969.68, while mainland China’s CSI 300 index increased by 0.52% to 4,143.83.
Meanwhile, South Korea’s Kospi index fell 0.53% to close at 3,189.91, while the small-cap Kosdaq lost 0.57% to 807.19.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 benchmark advanced 0.41% at 8,888.80.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 benchmark pared earlier gains to rise 2.15% at 42,718.17, while the broader Topix index added 1.39% to 3,066.37.
Over in India, the 50-stock benchmark Nifty 50 was flat, while the BSE Sensex index ticked down 0.12% as of 1:52 p.m. Indian Standard Time (4:23 a.m. ET).

Market Close

Equity markets rallied today following a July U.S. CPI inflation report that showed fewer signs of tariff-related price pressures than feared, and bolstered hopes for Fed interest-rate cuts. The major large-cap indexes were up between 1%-1.5% over the session, helping push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new record highs. However, the small-cap Russell 2000 index was the standout performer, rising 3% over the day, with this benchmark now up more than 5% from its low at the start of August.
Rising expectations for rate cuts appear to be boosting sentiment around the interest-rate sensitive U.S. small-business sector, with the 2-year U.S. government bond yield down 4 basis points (0.04%) today, while longer-dated bonds were broadly steady. Against this backdrop, the dollar fell by 0.5% against a trade-weighted basket of currencies.
The consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.2% month-over-month (m/m) in July, leaving the headline year-over-year (y/y) inflation rate steady at 2.7%. Meanwhile, the closely followed core CPI inflation measure, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, was up 0.3% m/m, bringing the y/y rate to 3.1%. Looking at the breakdown, the pass-through of higher tariff rates into consumer prices looked to be quite muted over July, with core goods prices rising 0.2% m/m and many of the most tariff-sensitive products increasing by less than reported over recent months. Instead, the rise in services inflation was more pronounced last month, particularly for air fares, which surged by 4% m/m. In terms of the big picture, the report adds to the sense that the reacceleration in inflation seen so far this year on account of tariffs has been less pronounced than feared.
While there remains uncertainty over the extent and speed of the pass-through of tariffs to consumer prices, the Fed might feel that the modest impact up to now provides room to resume its cutting cycle. Certainly, signs of slowing activity and a weaker hiring backdrop help add to the case for easing, especially with members of the rate-setting FOMC committee arguing that the level of interest rates at present is weighing on the economy. Markets are pricing a more than 90% likelihood that the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) in September, with at least one more cut priced for the rest of the year.

Global Indices:

Active Stocks:

Stocks, ETFs and Funds Screener:

Forex:

CryptoCurrency:

Events and Earnings Calendar:

This daily briefing is curated from a wide range of reputable sources including news wires, research desks, and financial data providers. The insights presented here are a synthesis of key developments across global markets, intended to inform and spark thought.

No Investment Advice: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, recommendation, or endorsement.

Timing Note: Each edition is assembled based on the market context available at the time of writing. Timing, emphasis, and interpretations may vary depending on global developments and publishing windows.