Trade Secrets

WTF Dailies August 15, 2025

Stocks were largely able to erase losses seen earlier in the session after July’s producer price index came in hotter than expected. That threw some cold water on the investor euphoria that followed the consumer price index earlier in the week.

Sage Kakkat

14 Aug 2025 — 6 min read

S&P 500 futures are near flat Thursday night following the benchmark index’s third straight record close.
Futures tied to the benchmark index ticked up 0.05%, while Nasdaq 100 futures shed 0.1%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 173 points, or 0.4%.
UnitedHealth rallied more than 10% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway and Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management announced positions in the insurer. Intel popped more than 4% following a Bloomberg report that the Trump administration is in discussions to have the U.S. government take a stake.
Thursday night’s action comes after the S&P 500 was able to set a fresh all-time closing high with a narrow gain. The Dow and Nasdaq Composite, on the other hand, fell marginally in the session.
Stocks were largely able to erase losses seen earlier in the session after July’s producer price index came in hotter than expected. That threw some cold water on the investor euphoria that followed the consumer price index earlier in the week.
Investors on Friday will monitor economic data on import prices, consumer sentiment and retail sales.
Asian stock markets were mixed on Friday, with Japan shares rising on robust second-quarter economic growth, while Hong Kong shares declined as weak Chinese factory output and retail sales data weighed.
Markets in South Korea and India were closed for public holidays, leading to thin trading volumes.
Wall Street closed largely unchanged on Thursday after hot producer price figures tempered expectations of an outsized Federal Reserve rate cut next month. Still, the S&P 500 hit a fresh record high, as a quarter-point cut was still largely priced in for September.
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index jumped 1% Friday, hovering near Wednesday’s record high of 43,451 points.
Japan’s broader TOPIX index also rebounded 0.8% after hitting record highs earlier this week.
Data on Friday showed that Japan’s economy expanded more than expected in the second quarter, as exports and capital spending remained resilient despite U.S. tariff pressures during the period.
GDP grew 1% year-on-year in the April–June quarter, up from the upwardly revised 0.6% in the first quarter, and was also well above the 0.4% anticipated.
The stronger-than-expected outcome may bolster the case for the Bank of Japan to consider further tightening.
In China, data showed that industrial production in July fell short of expectations as overseas demand waned following earlier front-loading due to U.S. tariffs.
Retail sales figures from the world’s second-largest economy also came in below expectations in July amid weakness in consumer spending.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 1.3% on Friday.
In Mainland China, the Shanghai Composite index gained 0.5%, while the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 also rose 0.5%.
Elsewhere, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.4% to a fresh record high.
Meanwhile, Singapore’s Straits Times Index declined 0.9%.
India Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty tanked more than 1 per cent on Friday due to heavy selling in IT, financial and oil stocks in line with weak trends in the global markets

Market Close

Equity markets moved lower today after economic data provided mixed messages on the strength of the U.S. consumer. The S&P 500 slipped from all-time highs, with the technology and financial sectors the worst performers, more than offsetting gains in health care, real estate and communications services.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to finish marginally higher on the day, and the Russell 2000 index was down for a second successive session, although this small-cap benchmark is still up around 3% over the course of a strong week.
The tone in international equities appeared to be generally positive, with European markets likely boosted by hopes that today's meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin might deliver progress toward a peace agreement in the Russia-Ukraine war.
Meanwhile, Treasury bonds sold off, with yields on 2- to 30-year bonds pushing 2-5 basis points higher (0.02% to 0.05%), consistent with moves seen across global sovereign bond markets, including Canada. The dollar was softer against a basket of trade-weighted currencies, and WTI oil prices closed lower.
U.S. retail sales increased by 0.5% month-over-month (m/m) in July, with robust sales for online retailers helped by Amazon's Prime Day campaign, which appears to be increasingly mirrored by other major retailers, such as Walmart and Target. Additionally, sales figures for June were revised higher, with these data pointing to some improvement in consumer spending over recent months following a sharp slowdown through the second quarter. However, the news was not all positive. Spending at restaurants and bars was weak, with this component often used as a proxy for broader consumer spending on services, and consumer confidence data disappointed.
A large drop in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index reflected concerns over rising inflation and a loosening labor market. Import data released today suggest that exporters are not cutting prices to cushion the effect of tariffs seemingly leaving the bulk of these levies to be paid by importers.
The data calendar next week is relatively light, with the first cut of August PMI survey data and minutes from the July Fed meeting the highlights from the U.S., while inflation data in Canada will be in focus. Otherwise, all eyes will likely be on the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, a signature central-bank conference that is sometimes used as an opportunity for policymakers to provide guidance around their next steps. Fed Chair Powell will speak on Friday, and markets will be watching for signs that he is preparing the ground for an interest-rate cut at the upcoming September FOMC meeting. Treasury Secretary Bessent has urged the Fed to cuts rates by 50 basis points (0.50%) at that meeting, and by a total of 150 basis points (1.50%) through the rest of the year. However, San Francisco Fed President Daly pushed back on the prospect of outsized cuts, arguing that fundamentals do not justify such an "urgent" move.

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