Trade Secrets

WTF Dailies August 18, 2025

The investing world will turn its attention to northwestern Wyoming in the week ahead, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell set to give his most important policy speech of the year on Friday at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

Sage Kakkat

17 Aug 2025 — 7 min read

Trump met his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Friday and flagged positive, albeit vague developments from the meeting. Trump is now set to meet a host of European leaders, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday.
Trump on Sunday evening claimed Zelensky could end the war by ceding the Crimea region to Russia and dropping Ukraine’s bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance. A peace deal stands to limit Trump’s ire over India and China buying Russian oil, which he recently claimed was funding Russia’s war against Ukraine.
The investing world will turn its attention to northwestern Wyoming in the week ahead, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell set to give his most important policy speech of the year on Friday at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
Held each year at the Jackson Lake Lodge in Grand Teton National Park, the Kansas City Fed's annual meeting often serves as a crucial set piece in the Fed chair's calendar that signals key shifts in the central bank's thinking.
Ahead of Powell's speech — likely to be his last as Fed chair — markets are placing the probability the Fed will cut rates by at least 0.25% next month at around 85%. Clues from Powell about the speed and depth of the cycle the Fed is about to embark on will be the week's biggest market-moving event.
And the economic data flow will be slow this week, with Thursday's updates on initial jobless claims and service sector activity the top highlights.
Investors may also keep a closer eye than usual on the minutes from the Fed's July 30-31 meeting released Wednesday, which could offer more color on the decision from Fed governors Waller and Bowman to vote against the central bank's decision to keep rates unchanged in a range of 4.25%-4.50% last month.
Most Asia stocks rose on Monday as risk appetite was supported by some signs of progress in U.S.-Russia dialogue over a Ukraine ceasefire, with Japanese shares at record highs.
Chinese and Indian markets outperformed amid hopes that a swift resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict will help remove U.S. scrutiny of New Delhi and Beijing’s purchases of Russian oil.
Gains in Asian markets came as U.S. stock index futures advanced in regional trade, with S&P 500 Futures up 0.2%. Most regional markets were also sitting on gains from the prior week, amid increasing bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.
China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes rallied 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively. The SSEC hit a nine-year high, while the CSI300 was at its highest since October 2024.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index lagged, rising 0.6% as losses in property and technology stocks lagged.
India’s Nifty 50 index surged 1.5% in morning trade, hitting a three-week high.
Chinese and Indian markets were boosted by hopes that the U.S. will not disrupt their buying of Russian oil, especially if a peace deal is reached between Moscow and Kyiv.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indexes remained key outperformers in Asia, rising 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively, while also hitting record highs.
Japanese markets were boosted chiefly by Japan’s government dismissing speculation that the U.S. was pressuring the Bank of Japan into raising interest rates. This came after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the BOJ was “behind the curve” on policy and needed to raise interest rates.
Bessent’s comments were accompanied by robust second-quarter gross domestic product data released on Friday, which showed the Japanese economy remaining strong despite increasing headwinds from trade tariffs and inflation. The GDP print had also boosted Japanese markets on Friday.
Japanese stocks were also boosted by weakness in the yen, which supported export-oriented sectors.
Other Asian markets were less positive, pressured by a mix of profit-taking and weakness in technology shares.
South Korea’s KOSPI slid 1.3% after a long weekend, with local tech stocks catching up to late last-week losses in their U.S. peers.
Australia’s ASX 200 was flat, stalling below record highs hit last week on some losses in heavyweight mining and energy stocks.
Oil stocks across Asia slid tracking weakness in oil prices, which were hit by growing bets on a Russia-Ukraine peace deal.
Singapore’s Straits Times index shed 0.6% after hitting record highs last week.

Market Close

Equity markets closed mixed on Monday as retailers are set to report earnings this week, helping provide a check on the health of consumers.
Industrial and consumer discretionary led to the upside, while the real estate and communication sectors lagged.
Bond yields ticked up, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.33%, but remain below its July peak near 4.50%.
In international markets, Asia finished mostly higher overnight, with Japan's Nikkei index reaching a record high.
Europe was up as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer accompanied Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy today to meet with President Trump to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war.
President Trump held a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska last Friday, which did not result in an agreement.
The U.S. dollar advanced against major international currencies.
In commodity markets, WTI oil is traded higher, as markets likely focused on the potential impact of Russia-Ukraine talks on India's purchases of Russian oil.
Retailers should help provide a check on the health of consumers, with home-improvement leader Home Depot reporting results on Tuesday, followed by Lowe's and Target on Wednesday, then closing out with industry bellwether Walmart on Thursday.
With 92% of the S&P 500 companies reporting quarterly results, 82% have beaten analyst estimates, with an average upside surprise of 8.4%. Performance has been broad as well, with 10 of the 11 sectors reporting higher earnings year-over-year. Forecasts for second-quarter earnings growth of S&P 500 companies have been revised sharply higher to 10.4%, from 3.8% at the end of the quarter. Earnings growth is expected to drift lower over the quarters ahead, though combining for a solid 10.3% growth for 2025, aided by the first quarter's strong 12.8% rise.
S&P Flash U.S. PMI for August will be released on Thursday, with Flash U.S. Services PMI forecast to edge lower to 54.0, from 55.7 the prior month. Estimates for Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI point to a rise to 50.6, from 49.8 in July. These readings, if in line with expectations, would be consistent with recent trends of services remaining above the key 50.0 mark reflecting expansion and of manufacturing recovering from contraction at the start of the year.

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