WTF Dailies August 25, 2025

U.S. stock indices fell at the start of Monday’s session after Wall Street rallied sharply on dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which heralded interest rate cuts in the near-term.

Sage Kakkat

25 Aug 2025 — 4 min read

U.S. stock indices fell at the start of Monday’s session after Wall Street rallied sharply on dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which heralded interest rate cuts in the near-term.
In early Monday trading, the S&P 500 index declined 0.24%, while the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.2%.
Powell, speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, said the central bank could possibly cut rates in September amid increasing risks to the labor market.
Markets are now pricing in a ~89% chance of a 25bp rate cut in September, followed by a 49% chance of another 25bp cut in December.
Focus this week is squarely on second-quarter earnings from AI major NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), which are due on Wednesday. The company is widely regarded as a bellwether for AI demand, and is expected to mostly log another strong quarter. But focus will be on the company’s China sales, which are likely to have fallen further amid brief U.S. export curbs and increased Chinese scrutiny towards AI chips. Nvidia was seen halting production of its China-specific H20 chip last week.
Second-quarter gross domestic product data is also on tap this week, coming after preliminary data released in late-July showed strong growth.
On the data front, the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index for July is expected to come in at negative 0.11, down from the prior month’s negative 0.10. Meanwhile, new home sales are projected to have been at an annualized 630,000 pace in July versus the prior month’s 627,000 pace, corresponding to a 0.5% month-over-month (MOM) increase versus the prior month’s increase of 0.6%. The Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for August will be released, with the general business activity index expected to come in at negative 1.7, down from the prior month’s 0.9. The finalized reading of July building permits will be released today, with the preliminary reading showing an annualized 1.35 million corresponding to a MOM decrease of 2.8%.
Across the pond, European stocks are mostly lower in mid-day trading as Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index for August increased more than expected.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were higher as Japan’s nationwide department store sales in July declined by 6.2% year-over-year and the country’s finalized June Leading Index was revised slightly lower.
In FOREX trading, the dollar is higher ahead of today’s U.S. economic releases.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 0.7% higher at $64.12/barrel amid worries over Russian exports due to potential additional sanctions from the U.S. and further strikes from Ukraine.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.3% lower at $3,366.00/ounce following a strengthening dollar.

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