WTF Dailies July 14, 2025

• US stock futures fell Sunday evening as Wall Street braces for a turbulent week, with renewed trade tensions and a wave of second-quarter earnings set to test investor sentiment.
• The moves follow President Donald Trump's announcement Saturday that the US will impose 30% tariffs on goods from the European Union and Mexico starting August 1. The new duties raise the stakes for global trade relations and add to existing inflationary pressures. Officials from the EU and Mexico have signaled a willingness to continue negotiations in hopes of securing a reduced rate.
• Sunday night's declines come on the heels of a losing week for stocks, even as indexes remain near record highs. All three major indexes ended three-week winning streaks.
• The timing adds to market uncertainty, with CPI data scheduled for release this week. Investors are looking for signs of how earlier rounds of tariffs are impacting prices across the US economy, with eyes watching the Federal Reserve as a decision on rate cuts is expected in just over two weeks.
• Tensions between the White House and the Fed continue to bubble, adding a layer of uncertainty onto the economic landscape. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Sunday to ABC News that President Trump could remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell "if there’s cause."
• Most Asian stocks kept to a tight range on Monday as investors digested the announcement of even more trade tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump, while Chinese markets advanced on positive trade data for June. 
• China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes rose 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.5%. 
• China’s trade balance grew more than expected in June, customs data showed on Monday, buoyed chiefly by a recovery in export growth. This came after Beijing and Washington agreed to slash their respective trade tariffs earlier in the year. 
• June’s trade data pointed to sustained strength in the Chinese economy through the second quarter, setting the stage for a potentially positive second-quarter gross domestic product print on Tuesday. 
• But trade data showed China’s imports grew less than expected in June, suggesting that local demand still remained weak. Such a trend could draw out more stimulus measures from Beijing. Industrial production and retail sales data for June are also due on Tuesday. 
• GDP data is expected to show the Chinese economy grew at a faster pace than the government’s 5% annual target, amid only limited impact from a brief trade war with Washington. 
• Beijing doled out a slew of stimulus measures in the past year, all aimed at shoring up local production and consumer spending. Retail sales data is expected to provide more insight into this trend, after surging past expectations in May. 
• Broader Asian markets were mostly flat on Monday, with substantially stronger-than-expected GDP data from Singapore providing some support. The island state is considered as a bellwether for trade and commerce in Southeast Asia, and is also a major exporter to China. 
• Singapore’s Straits Times index rose 0.4%. 
• South Korea’s KOSPI added 0.1% after logging strong gains in the past week, on sustained strength in technology and chipmaking stocks. 
• Australia’s ASX 200 was flat amid mixed performances in major commodity stocks. Diversified miner South32 Ltd (ASX:S32) slid more than 4% after it flagged an impairment at an aluminum smelter in Mozambique. 
• Japanese shares underperformed amid waning hopes of a trade deal between Tokyo and Washington. The Nikkei 225 index shed 0.3%, while the TOPIX lost 0.2%, extending losses after Trump slapped Tokyo with a 25% tariff.  
• Gift Nifty 50 Futures for India’s Nifty 50 index fell 0.2%, pointing to sustained weakness in the index as it faced renewed profit-taking at levels above 25,000 points. Investors continued to watch for a trade deal between New Delhi and Washington, after Trump earlier signaled that a deal was close. 

Market Close

• Equity markets reversed an early pullback to close higher on Monday despite President Trump announcing 30% tariffs on the European Union and Mexico over the weekend. New tariffs are set to take effect August 1. Bond yields ticked up, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.43%, below its May peak near 4.60%. Communication and financial stocks posted the largest gains, while the energy and materials sectors lagged. In international markets, Asia finished mixed overnight, as China's trade surplus grew to a higher-than-expected $115 billion in June, despite the effects of tariffs. Europe was down on the new 30% U.S. tariffs on exports from the European Union. The U.S. dollar advanced against major international currencies. In commodity markets, WTI oil traded lower as markets assess the possibility of U.S. sanctions on buyers of Russian crude. 
• Consumer price index (CPI) inflation for June will be released on Tuesday, with estimates calling for the headline figure to rise to 2.6% annualized, from 2.4% the prior month. Core CPI inflation, which excludes more-volatile food and energy prices, is expected to increase to 3.0% year-over-year, from 2.8% in May. Inflation is forecast to rise over the coming months as tariffs begin to flow through to end consumers, putting upward pressure on prices. However, most of this impact should be near-term price hikes that aren't a driver of ongoing inflation, in our view. Bond markets are pricing in inflation of about 2.37% over the next 10 years, indicating that long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. 
• Corporate earnings for the second quarter will start to be released this week, led by the major banks. Earnings growth is expected to slow to 3.7% year-over-year for the S&P 500, down considerably from 12.8% in the first quarter, likely affected by disruptions from policy uncertainty and tariff shifts in recent months. Markets will likely watch carefully to see how tariffs are impacting corporate revenue and profit margins. Earnings growth is expected to be led by the communications and technology sectors, while energy and consumer discretionary companies are forecast to experience the steepest earnings contraction. Earnings growth is forecast to rise over the quarters ahead, combining for 8.5% growth for 2025.

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This daily briefing is curated from a wide range of reputable sources including news wires, research desks, and financial data providers. The insights presented here are a synthesis of key developments across global markets, intended to inform and spark thought.

No Investment Advice: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, recommendation, or endorsement.

Timing Note: Each edition is assembled based on the market context available at the time of writing. Timing, emphasis, and interpretations may vary depending on global developments and publishing windows.