WTF Dailies July 15, 2025

• US stock futures waded into the green on Tuesday as Wall Street girded for a key consumer inflation print and for big banks to kick off earnings season, with tariff-driven concerns in focus for both events.
• Investors are bracing for June's release of the Consumer Price Index, due for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday. The report is expected to show the first real signs of a tariff-driven uptick on prices. Headline CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% month over month and 2.4% year over year. Both would represent accelerations from May's data.
• The tariffs drama and the inflation and earnings pictures also factor into the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates, coming in just over two weeks. The vast majority of bets are on a hold this month, followed by a rate cut in September.
• Most Asian stocks moved in a tight range on Tuesday as markets questioned data showing stronger-than-expected economic growth in China, while concerns over higher U.S. trade tariffs remained in play. 
• Technology stocks, especially in China, were buoyed by major chipmaker NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stating that Washington will allow it to resume sales of a popular artificial intelligence chip in China, reflecting further deescalation in a trade conflict between Washington and Beijing.
• But U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent announcement of tariffs against several other major economies remained a major point of contention for markets, especially given that the targeted economies have just over two weeks left to hash out trade deals with Washington.
• Japan’s Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indexes fell slightly, maintaining a downward trend after Trump slapped the country with 25% tariffs. South Korea’s KOSPI fell 0.1%, with the country also facing a 25% U.S. levy. 
• Regional markets took middling cues from a sluggish overnight session on Wall Street.
• China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.6%, while the Shanghai Composite slid 1%, taking limited support from strong gross domestic product data. 
• Losses in property firms also weighed following a dire profit warning from state-backed property giant China Vanke Co Ltd (SZ:000002). Shenzhen shares of the firm fell over 2% after it forecast a $1.67 billion loss in the first six months of 2025, ramping up concerns over a prolonged decline in China’s key property market. 
• GDP data showed the Chinese economy grew more than expected in the second quarter.GDP grew 5.2% year-on-year, more than expectations of 5.1%, while GDP in the first six months of 2025 came to 5.3%, remaining above Beijing’s 5% annual target. 
• The print was driven by improving trade relations between the U.S. and China, which saw the latter subject to only about a month of steep U.S. trade tariffs. Consumer spending subsidies from Beijing also helped bolster local growth.
• But while the print was stronger than expected, Capital Economics analysts warned that it still showed the world’s second-largest economy losing momentum, and that growth was likely to worsen later in 2025.
• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index curbed early gains to trade flat, as losses in China-exposed sectors, especially real estate, weighed. 
• Broader Asian markets were mildly positive. Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.4% and was close to a record high.
• Singapore’s Straits Times index rose 0.2%, while Gift Nifty 50 Futures for India’s Nifty 50 index were flat. Indian CPI inflation data read softer than expected for June, likely setting the stage for more monetary easing by the Reserve Bank.

Market Close

•  Equity markets were mixed on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones lower, while the Nasdaq climbed higher. This comes as the U.S. CPI inflation report for June was in line with forecasts. Earnings season also officially kicked off on Tuesday, with big banks like J.P. Morgan exceeding expectations. Despite today's moves, markets have been resilient, with the S&P 500 now up over 25% since the April 8 lows. Meanwhile, Treasury bond yields also climbed today, with the 10-year yield up around 0.05% to 4.48%. Yields have moved to the upper end of their recent range as equity markets have recovered.
• Consumer price index (CPI) inflation for June came out on Tuesday morning in line with forecasts. Headline CPI was 2.7% year-over-year, a tick above expectations of 2.6% and higher than last month's 2.4%. Core CPI, excluding the more volatile food and energy, was 2.9% year-over-year, in line with forecasts and slightly higher than last month's 2.8%. On a monthly basis, headline inflation was 0.3%, in line with forecasts, but core CPI came in at 0.2%, slightly below the 0.3% expectations. Certain food categories, including meat and dairy, new and used cars, and airline fare prices all fell monthly. Tariff rates are likely to move higher in the weeks ahead, but companies may have built inventories or adjusted supply chains to offset some of these higher rates.  
• Corporate earnings kicked off in earnest on Tuesday morning, with big banks like J.P. Morgan, Citibank and Wells Fargo reporting second-quarter earnings. Thus far, banks have exceeded earnings forecasts, with banks like J.P. Morgan benefiting from higher trading and investment-banking revenue. Overall, S&P 500 earnings growth for the quarter is expected to be close to 5%, well below the 11% estimate that was forecast at the start of the year. Nonetheless, full-year earnings growth is expected to be high-single-digits in 2025, and potentially re-accelerating to double-digits in 2026.

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This daily briefing is curated from a wide range of reputable sources including news wires, research desks, and financial data providers. The insights presented here are a synthesis of key developments across global markets, intended to inform and spark thought.

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Timing Note: Each edition is assembled based on the market context available at the time of writing. Timing, emphasis, and interpretations may vary depending on global developments and publishing windows.