WTF Dailies July 17, 2025

• US stock futures rose early Thursday, as Wall Street navigated a fresh round of drama over whether President Trump would attempt to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Investors also braced for another key economic pulse check and for Netflix (NFLX) to kick off this season's Big Tech earnings reports.
• The major indexes remain at or near record highs while investors navigate a plethora of catalysts, including earnings, economic data, Trump's tariffs, and the president's displeasure with the Federal Reserve on interest rates.
• Trump's renewed threats to attempt to fire Powell sparked a stock sell-off midday Wednesday before a reversal after he said he was "not planning" to do so. Still, the president has spent months excoriating Powell and the Fed, and investor bets suggest he is likely to continue to be disappointed in two weeks. Per the CME Group, nearly 100% of traders are expecting a rate hold amid mixed signals on inflation.
• Meanwhile, June's retail sales data is out Thursday, providing another snapshot of the health of the US consumer — who big banks so far this earnings season say seem to be doing just "fine." June's sales are expected to nudge higher after sliding in May, as consumers pulled back on "front-running" purchases ahead of expected tariff-driven price increases.
• Most Asian stocks moved in a flat-to-low range on Thursday amid little relief from uncertainty over U.S. trade tariffs and interest rates, while chipmaking stocks underperformed ahead of closely watched earnings from bellwether TSMC. 
• Australian markets were outperformers for the day, coming close to record highs as dismal labor data ramped up bets on more interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. 
• Regional markets took few positive cues from a mildly stronger overnight close on Wall Street, as Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline drew closer with only a handful of trade deals being signed so far.
• Wall Street took limited support from a swathe of strong bank earnings, given that the country’s lenders warned of an uncertain economic outlook. More second-quarter earnings are due in the coming days, with Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) set to report later on Thursday. 
• Among Asian bourses, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.3%, while the TOPIX was flat. Trade data for June showed sustained weakness in the country’s exports, amid pressure from U.S. tariffs on steel and automobiles.
• China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes inched higher, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng steadied after clocking strong tech-driven gains in the past two sessions. Markets were now waiting to see just when NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) will resume selling a key artificial intelligence chip in China, after the company said Washington intended to allow such a move.
• Singapore’s Straits Times index rose 0.3% following substantially stronger-than-expected non-oil export data for June, which improved after months of sustained declines. Gift Nifty 50 Futures for India’s Nifty 50 index were flat. 
• South Korea’s KOSPI fell 0.4%, pressured chiefly by losses in major chipmaking stocks.
• Major Asian chipmaking stocks moved in a flat-to-low range on Thursday after chipmaking equipment supplier ASML Holding NV (AS:ASML) warned that it may not achieve revenue growth in 2026, even as robust AI demand helped its second-quarter bookings beat estimates.
• The company said that uncertainty over U.S. tariffs saw several chipmakers delay finalizing investments– which could weigh on chip demand in the coming months.
• Among Asian chipmakers, South Korea’s SK Hynix Inc (KS:000660) was by far the worst performer. The stock sank over 8% after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to Neutral, citing expectations of margin pressures from increased competition in the memory chip sector. 
• SK Hynix rival Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (KS:005930) rose 1.7%, while Japan’s Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TYO:8035) and Advantest Corp. (TYO:6857) shed about 2% each. 
• China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (HK:0981) rose slightly. 
• TSMC (NYSE:TSM) (TW:2330), the world’s largest chipmaker, fell 0.9% in Taiwan trade, with focus squarely on its second-quarter earnings due later in the day. While the company is expected to clock strong earnings on sustained AI-fueled demand, focus will be squarely on any changes to its outlook, amid U.S. tariff uncertainty and unfavorable foreign exchange moves. 
• TSMC and ASML are largely regarded as bellwethers for the chip industry, given their key roles in the supply chain.
• Australia’s ASX 200 index was the best performer in Asia, rising 0.7% and coming within spitting distance of a record high. 
• Gains were driven chiefly by increased bets on more interest rate cuts by the RBA, after employment data for June read substantially weaker than expected.
• The RBA has cited inflation and the labor market as its biggest considerations for rates, and may now be spurred into further easing to prevent more labor market weakness. 
• Macquarie analysts flagged a bullish outlook for Australian stocks in a Wednesday note, stating that tech and cyclical stocks were set to benefit from lower rates across the globe. 

Market Close

•  Equity markets closed higher on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record highs. Bond yields ticked up, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.46%, below its May peak near 4.60%. Financial and technology stocks posted the largest gains, while the health care and real estate sectors lagged. In international markets, Asia finished mostly higher overnight, while Europe was up as eurozone CPI inflation held steady in June at 2.0%, as expected and in line with the European Central Bank's target. The U.S. dollar advanced against major international currencies. In commodity markets, WTI oil traded higher as Israel launched strikes on Syria, raising geopolitical tensions. 
• Initial jobless claims fell to 221,000 this past week, below estimates pointing to modest rise to 232,000*. Continuing claims, which measures the total number of people receiving benefits, was roughly unchanged at 1.95 million*. Jobless claims have trended lower in recent weeks, which, combined with other recent data, indicate the labor market remains healthy but is cooling from a position of strength. The unemployment rate remains low at 4.1%, and 7.8 million job openings exceed unemployment of 7.0 million.  
• The advance estimate for retail and food-service sales grew 0.6% in June from the prior month, above expectations for a 0.2% rise. Autos were a large contributor, rising 1.2% month-over-month. While some of the increase in these readings may be attributable to higher prices, we believe consumers remain generally healthy, benefiting from a solid labor market.

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This daily briefing is curated from a wide range of reputable sources including news wires, research desks, and financial data providers. The insights presented here are a synthesis of key developments across global markets, intended to inform and spark thought.

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