WTF Dailies July 29, 2025
Stock futures are higher Tuesday morning ahead of today’s economic releases, including the advance goods trade balance, job openings, and consumer confidence data.
- Stock futures are higher Tuesday morning ahead of today’s economic releases, including the advance goods trade balance, job openings, and consumer confidence data. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) July policy meeting begins today. As of 7:15 AM ET, the Dow is rising 0.1%, while the S&P 500 is up 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 is increasing 0.5% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
- On the data front, the advance goods trade balance for June is projected to show a deficit of $98.0 billion, more than the prior month’s revised deficit of $96.4 billion. The preliminary June reading of wholesale inventories is expected to show a decrease of 0.1% month-over-month (MOM) versus the prior month’s decrease of 0.3%, while retail inventories are forecasted to have risen 0.3% MOM in June, similar to the prior month’s increase. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s House Price Index is expected to show a decrease of 0.2% MOM in May, compared to the prior month’s 0.4% decrease. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index for May is expected to register a decrease of 0.20% MOM and increase of 2.91% year-over-year (YOY), versus the prior month’s decrease of 0.31% and increase of 3.42%, respectively. The June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is forecasted to show job openings of 7.50 million, versus the prior month’s 7.77 million. The Conference Board’s reading of July consumer confidence is projected to come in at 96.0 versus the prior month’s 93.0. The Dallas Fed will release their Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey for July.
- Across the pond, European stocks are higher in mid-day trading as the European Central Bank’s Consumer Expectations Survey for June showed the median one-year inflation expectation for the eurozone decreasing to 2.6%, while the three-year inflation expectation remained steady at 2.4%. The U.K.’s mortgage approvals rose more than expected in June.
- Overnight in Asia, stocks were mixed as U.S. trade talks with China continue, with hopes for a continued tariff pause.
- In FOREX trading, the dollar is slightly higher as investors await tomorrow’s Fed rate decision.
- Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 0.3% higher at $66.93/barrel following President Trump introducing a new timeline urging Russia to work towards a cease-fire with Ukraine.
- In the metals complex, gold is 0.4% higher at $3,323.70/ounce despite a strengthening dollar.
Market Close
- Major U.S. equity indexes were lower today, halting a winning streak that had pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to a series of new record highs over recent sessions. The major large-cap stock indexes were down 0.3%-0.4% over the day, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index fell 0.6%. This follows a mixed tone in international equities overnight, with European stocks continuing to gain in the wake of the U.S.-EU trade agreement announced over the weekend, while Asian and emerging-market equities were weaker.
- The dollar meanwhile continued its strong run this week, appreciating further against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, although the greenback is still around 9% cheaper compared with the start of 2025. Government bonds rallied sharply, helped by very strong demand for a 7-year Treasury note auction, with yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury 9 basis points (0.09%) lower over the day.
- Finally, WTI oil prices jumped nearly 4% after the president warned Russia that it has 10 days to agree a truce in Ukraine, or face additional sanctions.
- A flurry of economic data and corporate earnings reports this week will give some indication on how the economy is faring through the middle of the year. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey delivered a larger-than-expected gain in July, but despite this improvement households appear to remain quite cautious around the outlook and are reporting that it is becoming increasingly challenging to find work. The JOLTs survey partly corroborated this signal, with job openings falling in June and hiring rates sluggish, although, on a brighter note, there remains little sign of a rise in layoffs from low levels.
- Otherwise, trade data continue to show distortions from tariffs, with a sharp decline in imports driving a larger-than-expected narrowing in the trade deficit over June. This will likely boost GDP growth in tomorrow's second-quarter report, with the Atlanta Fed nowcast tracking growth at 2.9% annualized following the release (previously 2.5%). However, looking through this noise, the underlying pace of growth has seemingly slowed to around 1% annualized this year, in our view, as trade disruptions and policy uncertainty take their toll on investment and consumer spending.
- Markets appear to be taking some encouragement that trade-policy uncertainty is at last starting to ease following a flurry of trade deals over the past week. However, for those countries that have not shaken hands on an agreement, the race to reach a deal continues. Negotiations between the U.S. and Canada remain challenging, according to both President Trump and Canadian officials, although talks aimed at finding a late breakthrough will continue this week .
- While Canada has conceded that any deal is likely to embed higher U.S. tariff rates, it is striving to negotiate exemptions, or lower rates, to measures targeting specific sectors such as autos, steel, aluminum and (potentially) copper.
- Elsewhere, U.S. trade Representative Greer warned that further negotiations with India will be needed to avert higher tariffs, and that talks with Cambodia and Thailand have resumed. Treasury Secretary Bessant meanwhile signaled that negotiations with China will also continue following his meetings with a trade delegation in Stockholm this week, with the U.S. reportedly pushing China to agree to large purchases of U.S. goods. President Trump will consider extending the looming deadline for an agreement by 90 days, according to Secretary Bessant.
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This daily briefing is curated from a wide range of reputable sources including news wires, research desks, and financial data providers. The insights presented here are a synthesis of key developments across global markets, intended to inform and spark thought.
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