WTF Dailies June 18, 2025

• US stock futures made slight gains as investors braced for ongoing Israel-Iran hostilities that could draw in the US, along with the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision. Futures attached to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%, contracts on the benchmark S&P 500 gained 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures moved 0.2% up.
• President Trump met with his national security team on Tuesday to discuss Israel and Iran, raising speculation that the US could join Israel's attack. The White House did not provide any details on the meeting, and the president spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu afterward. Iran has reportedly readied missiles for strikes on US bases in the event the US takes action.
• Concerns over escalating hostilities in the Middle East stayed front and centre in markets on Wednesday, sending oil prices higher and leaving investors hesitant to scoop up risk assets.
• Investors have grown increasingly nervous over the possibility of more direct U.S. military involvement as the Israel-Iran air war entered a sixth day, with President Donald Trump calling for Iran's unconditional surrender and warning U.S. patience was wearing thin.
• Oil prices extended their climb on Wednesday, with Brent crude futures up 0.3% to $76.67 per barrel while U.S. crude rose 0.43% to $75.16 a barrel. Both had jumped more than 4% in the previous session.
• MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.3% as did EUROSTOXX 50 futures, which declined 0.34%.
• DAX futures similarly slid 0.54%, while FTSE futures edged 0.06% higher.
• Interest-rate decision and press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled for Wednesday afternoon. Expectations are for the Fed to hold its policy rate steady on Wednesday at 4.25% - 4.5%.* In addition to the decision on interest rates, Wednesday's meeting will also provide an updated set of economic projections, with investors likely watching to see whether expectations for rate-cuts have changed since the March meeting, which signaled two quarter-point cuts from current levels in 2025
• U.K. inflation cooled slightly in May on an annual basis, according to data released earlier Wednesday, but remained above the Bank of England’s medium term target ahead of its policy-setting meeting later this week. Annual consumer price inflation rose 3.4% in May, a small drop from the 3.5% seen the prior month, but still ahead of the U.K. central bank’s 2.0% medium-term target.
• Nifty50 and BSE Sensex, the Indian equity benchmark indices, opened in red on Wednesday. While Nifty50 was below 24,850, BSE Sensex was down over 100 points. At 9:16 AM, Nifty50 was trading at 24,824.65, down 29 points or 0.12%. BSE Sensex was at 81,472.53, down 111 points or 0.14%. Future market movements will likely be influenced by international factors, with expected fluctuations around central bank decisions and geopolitical events.
  

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Market Close

• Equity markets closed modestly lower on Wednesday as the Fed concluded its June meeting. Technology and utility stocks posted the largest gains, while the energy and communication sectors were laggards. Bond yields rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.39%. In international markets, Asia finished mixed overnight, while Europe was broadly lower, as eurozone CPI inflation for May held steady at 1.9% annualized, below expectations for 2.0%*. The U.S. dollar advanced against major international currencies. In commodity markets, WTI oil traded higher as markets assessed escalating air strikes between Israel and Iran. 
• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its June meeting today, maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5%. The FOMC released its updated projection for the federal funds rate, known as the "dot plot," which continues to reflect two rate cuts this year, though the forecast for next year was reduced to one rate cut, down from two in the March forecast. The FOMC dialed back expectations for real GDP growth, while estimates for inflation and unemployment rose, likely contributing to the slightly slower path of policy-easing over the next few years.  
• Initial jobless claims declined to 245,000 this past week, below estimates pointing to 250,000. Continuing claims, which measures the total number of people receiving benefits, ticked down to 1.94 million from 1.95 million the prior week.

TThis daily briefing is curated from a wide range of reputable sources including news wires, research desks, and financial data providers. The insights presented here are a synthesis of key developments across global markets, intended to inform and spark thought.

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