Trade Secrets

WTF Dailies June 20, 2025

The global economy is heading for its slowest non-recessionary performance since 2008, with growth expected to reach just 2.3% in 2025, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report.

Sage Kakkat

19 Jun 2025 — 6 min read

The global economy is heading for its slowest non-recessionary performance since 2008, with growth expected to reach just 2.3% in 2025, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report. The bleak outlook comes amid rising trade tensions, persistent policy uncertainty, and a slowdown in investment—forcing downgrades in growth forecasts for nearly 70% of countries worldwide, across all income levels and regions.
As traders approach another pivotal day for financial markets, Friday, June 20, 2025, brings a crucial economic data release that could sway market dynamics. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, a key indicator of manufacturing activity in the region, is set to be released, potentially offering insights into the broader economic landscape.
US stock futures edged lower Thursday evening as investors weighed the possibility of direct US military involvement in the Israel-Iran war. President Trump on Thursday introduced a self-imposed two week time limit on his decision to enter the conflict, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already cautious market. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down over 150 points, or 0.4%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures each dipped about 0.3%.
Tensions between Israel and Iran remain elevated, with markets on edge over the possible US involvement. The White House press secretary, in a message she said had been dictated by Trump, said a decision would come within two weeks.
The geopolitical unease continues to send oil prices higher. Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate futures jumped roughly 3% on Thursday, with traders pricing in supply disruption risk should the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz, a bottleneck for one-fifth of the world's oil trade, be blocked. Iran has been seen upping the rate of export for oil in the hopes of maintaining revenue for the country should issues in supply chains arise.
Most Asian stocks firmed on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump postponed a decision on U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran war by two weeks, offering markets some near-term relief.
But Japanese shares lagged after hot consumer inflation data and hawkish Bank of Japan comments ramped up expectations that the central bank will hike interest rates further in the coming months.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indexes lagged most of their Asian peers on Friday, losing 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively. Export-oriented stocks were the biggest weight, as they were pressured by some strength in the yen.
Japanese core consumer price index inflation, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, surged to a near 2-½ year high in May, data showed on Friday, while underlying inflation hit an over one-year high. The data was followed by the minutes of the BOJ’s early-May meeting, which showed several members of the BOJ’s board supporting the bank’s rate hike path. The strong CPI data also came just days after the BOJ kept interest rates steady, but warned that it was likely to hike if inflation continued to rise. Friday’s data spurred increased bets that the BOJ could hike rates by as soon as July. Still, Japanese markets were sitting on some gains for the week.
Tech-heavy Asian bourses were the best performers for the day, as the sector recouped recent losses on some improvement in risk appetite.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.8%, while South Korea’s KOSPI jumped 1.1% to its highest level since early-2022. Other, non-tech indexes were less upbeat. Several Asian markets were also nursing losses for the week, as risk appetite was eroded by the Israel-Iran war.
China’s mainland Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes rose 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively, showing little reaction to the People’s Bank leaving its benchmark loan prime rate unchanged. But the PBOC is still expected to trim the rate further this year, as Beijing moves to shore up sluggish economic growth.
Indian equity benchmark indices rebounded sharply by nearly 1 percent on Friday after three consecutive sessions of losses, tracking gains in Asian markets and renewed foreign fund inflows. The Sensex rose 824.5 points or 1.01 percent to an intraday high of 82,186.37, while the Nifty jumped 247.2 points or 0.99 percent to a high of 25,040.45.

Market Close

Equity markets finished lower on Friday as President Trump extended a decision on U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict by two weeks, allowing more time for negotiations. Energy and consumer staples stocks posted the largest gains, while the communication and materials sectors led to the downside. In international markets, Asia finished mixed overnight, as China's central bank held its benchmark one-year loan prime rate steady at 3.0%, as expected.* Europe was higher despite eurozone preliminary consumer confidence for June unexpectedly falling.* The U.S. dollar declined against major international currencies. In commodity markets, WTI oil rose as air strikes between Israel and Iran raise concerns over potential supply disruptions*.
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI), which is intended to provide an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term, fell marginally by 0.1% in May to 99.0, below estimates to hold steady.Weaker consumer expectations for business conditions and lower Institute for Supply Management (ISM) new orders were the largest drivers of the drop. The rebound in the S&P 500 in May was the main positive contributor.
Bond yields fell, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.38%, extending the pullback from its May peak near 4.60%. Earlier this week the Fed's Open Market Committee (FOMC) updated its projection for the federal funds rate, known as the "dot plot," maintaining expectations for two rate cuts this year. Forecasts for next year were dialed back to one rate cut, down from two in the March estimate.

Global Indices:

Active Stocks:

Stocks, ETFs and Funds Screener:

Forex:

CryptoCurrency:

Events and Earnings Calendar:

TThis daily briefing is curated from a wide range of reputable sources including news wires, research desks, and financial data providers. The insights presented here are a synthesis of key developments across global markets, intended to inform and spark thought.

No Investment Advice: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, recommendation, or endorsement.

Timing Note: Each edition is assembled based on the market context available at the time of writing. Timing, emphasis, and interpretations may vary depending on global developments and publishing windows.