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WTF Dailies June 25, 2025

U.S. stock futures are subdued, with markets weighing hopes for a sustained ceasefire between Israel and Iran as well as fresh interest rate comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Sage Kakkat

25 Jun 2025 — 5 min read

The Israel-Iran ceasefire brokered by President Donald Trump appeared to still be in place on Wednesday, one day after the regional rivals said they had ended an air war after 12 days.
Trump claimed that the strikes had "obliterated" the sites, but U.S. intelligence agencies have found that Iran’s enriched uranium stocks had not been eradicated and the nation’s mostly-underground nuclear program may have only been set back by a couple of months, according to media reports.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to deliver his second day of testimony on Capitol Hill, this time to a Senate committee.
U.S. stock futures are subdued, with markets weighing hopes for a sustained ceasefire between Israel and Iran as well as fresh interest rate comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Oil prices rise, but stay around multi-week lows, as a stop to the fighting in the Middle East appeared to remain in effect. Elsewhere, economic uncertainty clouds the financial outlook from delivery group FedEx (NYSE:FDX).
Traders were also noting a modest shift in a dovish direction from Fed policymakers, although Powell used the first day of his testimony to Congress this week to underscore the central bank’s recent wait-and-see stance to future interest rate changes.
Still, markets are cautiously eyeing the looming expiration of a delay to sweeping U.S. "reciprocal" tariffs in early July, with the White House racing to secure deals with dozens of individual countries.
Oil prices edged up, with traders keeping tabs on the resilience of the Israel-Iran ceasefire. Yet crude remained around multi-week lows, weighed down by expectations that an easing in Middle East tensions will avert disruption to oil supply flows out of the oil-rich region. Worries had particularly swirled around whether Iran’s response to Israeli and U.S. strikes would be to stem shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key tanker thoroughfare located along Iran’s southern coast.
Brent crude had increased by 1.7% to $67.30 per barrel by 03:40 ET, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures had gained 1.8% to $65.53 a barrel.
Shares rose in Europe and Asia on Wednesday after U.S. stocks climbed to near their all-time high.
In early European share trading, Germany's DAX was flat at 23,642.70 and the CAC 40 in Paris edged 0.2% higher to 7,632.78. Britain's FTSE 100 gained 0.4% to 8,789.92, while U.S. futures were little changed.
Shares advanced in Asia, where Tokyo's Nikkei 225 picked up 0.4% to 38,942.07.
The Hang Seng in Hong Kong advanced 1.2% to 24,471.70 and the Shanghai Composite index jumped 1% to 3,455.97.
In South Korea, the Kospi edged less than 0.1% higher to 3,108.25, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 also was barely changed, at 8,559.20.
Taiwan's Taiex gained 1.1%. In Bangkok, the SET added 0.3% after the Thai central bank opted to keep its key interest rate unchanged.
In India Sensex was up 628.02 points or 0.77 percent at 82,683.13, and the Nifty was up 180.65 points or 0.72 percent at 25,225.00.
U.S. equity markets finished near the flatline Wednesday, with markets taking a breather after gains on Monday and Tuesday that were fueled by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.* From a leadership perspective, growth-oriented areas of the market led the way, with the information technology and communication services sectors of the S&P 500 among the top performers, while most other sectors traded flat-to-lower.* On the economic front, new home sales for May came in below expectations, adding to signs of potentially softening housing-market conditions following Tuesday's weaker-than-expected home price data.* In bond markets, longer-term yields were little changed, with the 10-year Treasury yield closing just below the 4.3% mark, while the 2-year yield edged lower to 3.77%.*

Market Close

As the first half of 2025 draws to a close, international developed large-cap stocks have emerged as one of the top-performing asset classes, with the MSCI EAFE Index up nearly 18% including dividends through Tuesday’s close. In fact, international developed large-cap stocks are on track to outperform the S&P 500 by approximately 13.5% in the first half—marking the widest margin of international outperformance since 1993. Key drivers of this strength include announced fiscal stimulus measures in Germany and a softer U.S. dollar during the first half of the year.

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