Trade Secrets

WTF Dailies June 30, 2025

US stock futures edged higher Sunday evening, setting up the major indexes for more records to end one of the most volatile first halves of a year in recent memory.

Sage Kakkat

30 Jun 2025 — 7 min read

US stock futures edged higher Sunday evening, setting up the major indexes for more records to end one of the most volatile first halves of a year in recent memory.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose around 0.5%. Contracts on the S&P 500 gained 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures ticked up 0.4%.
Several of Trump's economic agenda items are in focus this week. A July 9 deadline looms before the possible resumption of Trump's unilateral tariffs, which Trump on Sunday said he didn't think he'd "need to" extend.
On the trade front, India has extended its Washington visit to finalize a deal. Administration officials last week confirmed a trade framework with China was in place, bolstering investor sentiment despite a late-Friday dip triggered by Trump’s abrupt halt to talks with Canada, citing its digital tax policy.
Meanwhile, market watchers are closely following Senate negotiations over Trump’s proposed $4.5 trillion tax cut bill. The measure, which passed a procedural vote Saturday, could face a tough path in the House. The Congressional Budget Office estimates it would add $3.3 trillion to the deficit over a decade.
Looking ahead, investors will monitor key Chinese PMI data due Monday to gauge how the ongoing trade war is affecting Asia’s largest economy. Despite lingering uncertainties, the broader market remains upbeat heading into the new quarter and second half.
European stocks rose Monday, starting the new week on a positive note on hopes for more trade agreements as U.S. President Donald Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline draws nearer.
The positive start for Europe comes after similar sentiment in Asia-Pacific markets overnight, continuing the optimism generated by last week’s announcement that the U.S. had finalized a trade deal with China, completing the terms outlined in Geneva talks last month.
Additionally, Canada announced on Monday it will rescind its Digital Services Tax, clearing the way for the resumption of trade and security negotiations with the United States, with both sides aiming to strike a deal by July 21.
Back in Europe, Bloomberg reported late last week that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told EU leaders during a closed-door summit that she believes a deal can be secured before the July 9 deadline, when significant tariffs are set to take effect on both sides. If no agreement is reached by then, the U.S. plans to impose a 50% tariff on nearly all EU products, while the European bloc is prepared to implement its own set of countermeasures.
The need to avoid the damaging impact of a trade war was amply illustrated earlier Monday, as German retail sales fell by 1.6% in May compared with the previous month, suggesting that consumers were still struggling in the eurozone’s largest economy.
Data also showed that China’s manufacturing sector shrank at a milder-than-expected pace in June, as domestic producers continued to struggle with weak external demand and elevated U.S. trade tariffs.
In Japan, data showed that factory output grew at a much slower pace than expected in May amid weaker external demand, primarily due to U.S. tariffs on automobiles.
Back in Europe, investors will also be keeping an eye on German and Italian CPI data, after eurozone inflation dipped to 1.9% year-over-year in May, down from 2.2% in April and below the ECB’s 2% target.
Despite cutting rates by 25 basis points in June, ECB President Christine Lagarde struck a surprisingly hawkish tone, indicating that the rate-cutting cycle could be nearing its end or may already be complete.
Crude prices edged lower Monday as an easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the prospect of another OPEC+ output hike in August weighed.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, is set to meet on July 6 and is widely expected to agree to another monthly increase in output levels, the fifth since the group started unwinding production cuts in April.
Nifty50 and BSE Sensex, the Indian equity benchmark indices, opened in red on Monday. While Nifty50 was near 25,600, BSE Sensex was down 100 points. At 9:17 AM, Nifty50 was trading at 25,620.25, down 18 points or 0.068%. BSE Sensex was at 83,958.57, down 100 points or 0.12%. The market trajectory will remain influenced by global factors. Despite improved outlook, wariness continues regarding potential tariff increases, with US tariffs set to resume from July 9, whilst developments in trade negotiations remain crucial.

Market Close

Equity markets rose on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new record highs to close out the first half of the year. In a sign of easing trade tensions, Canada rescinded its proposed digital services tax, which would have applied to foreign and domestic technology companies at a 3.0% rate. President Trump had suspended U.S.-Canada trade talks last Friday in response to the planned levy. Technology and financial stocks led markets to the upside, while the consumer discretionary and energy sectors lagged. In international markets, Asia finished mixed overnight, as China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged higher in June but remained in contraction territory for the third consecutive month, as expected. Europe was broadly lower despite Germany's CPI inflation cooling to 2.0% annualized in June, in line with the European Central Bank's target for the region.The U.S. dollar declined against major international currencies. In commodity markets, WTI oil was down on easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the prospect for additional supply hikes, as OPEC+ meets on July 6.
Bond yields fell, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.24%. The benchmark yield has pulled back from its May peak near 4.60%. Bond markets are pricing in expectations for three cuts to the fed funds rate this year, above the Fed's own forecast for two cuts.Resilient, though likely slower, economic growth could cut demand for credit and loans, which can reduce the difference between long- and short-term interest rates, known as a flatter yield curve.
The final S&P U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), to be released tomorrow, is expected to fall to 49.3, below the key 50.0 mark, reflecting contraction for the first time this year.The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI is forecast to improve to 49.1, from 48.5 in May.Importantly, services activity, which represents more than 70% of the U.S. economy, has remained in expansion territory, though at a slowing pace.

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