WTF Dailies September 15, 2025

• US stock futures were flat Sunday evening as Wall Street turned its attention to a pivotal Federal Reserve meeting later this week.
• Weak labor market signals coupled with price increases have increased expectation that the Federal Reserve will move forward with an interest rate cut at Wednesday’s policy meeting. Fed funds futures are now pricing in a 96% chance of a quarter-point cut ahead of the upcoming rate decision.
• A rate cut could provide another tailwind for equities, particularly as AI enthusiasm continues to drive market sentiment, despite spreading fears of an AI bubble. Traders will also be watching whether Stephen Miran is sworn in as a Fed governor in time to participate in this week’s FOMC vote.
• Most Asian share markets were steady on Monday after strong gains last week, with South Korea touching fresh record highs and China holding near decade peaks, even as factory output and retail sales data undershot expectations.
• Blue-chip Chinese stocks led gains amid choppy trades, as tech stocks extended their rally, tracking Wall Street’s renewed optimism around AI.
• All three benchmark U.S. stock indexes reached record highs last week, buoyed by expectations that the Federal Reserve would reduce interest rates this week.
• China’s industrial production rose at its weakest pace in a year in August – slowing to 5.2% growth year-over-year, from July’s 5.7% and missing forecasts of the same rate. 
• Retail sales increased 3.4% year-on-year, below July’s 3.7% and analysts’ expectations for 3.8%. 
• The data suggested that momentum in the world’s second-largest economy remained fragile despite earlier signs of stabilisation.
• Another month of disappointing Chinese data across the board may be creating a sense of deja vu, repeating last year’s slowdown around this same time," ING analysts said in a note.
• Still, Chinese stocks extended their rally, with gains in technology and consumer shares, boosted by upbeat AI sentiment in the U.S.
• The Shanghai Composite index inched up 0.2%, hovering just below 10-year highs, while the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 jumped nearly 1%, remaining near an over-three-year high.
• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.3%, staying close to a four-year peak.
• Meanwhile, China and the U.S. opened high-level trade talks in Madrid on Sunday, covering tariffs, export controls and digital economy disputes. The discussions followed a 90-day truce agreed in July.
• A day before the summit, China’s commerce ministry said it had begun an anti-discrimination investigation into U.S. trade policy over chips, and a separate investigation into dumping.
• The probes boosted optimism toward domestic Chinese chipmakers, as investors bet local firms could gain market share if tariffs or restrictions curb U.S. chip sales into China
• The region’s outlook would likely be shaped by U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision later this week. 
• Signs of a cooling U.S. labour market and still-firm inflation have left investors confident the Fed will cut rates by at least 25 basis points, a move that could boost risk appetite globally.
• South Korea’s KOSPI rose 0.6% to a fresh record peak of 3,420.23 points on Monday, led by semiconductor giants SK Hynix Inc (KS:000660) and Samsung Electronics (KS:005930). 
• Investors also welcomed government signals of market reforms, including the postponement of proposed capital gains tax changes. 
• Japan’s markets were shut on Monday for a public holiday, but remain near record highs. 
• The Nikkei 225 has been lifted by technology and industrial stocks, mirroring gains in U.S. tech shares driven by AI enthusiasm. 
• Elsewhere, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 edged down 0.2%, while Singapore’s Straits Times Index traded flat.
• India’s Nifty 50 opened largely unchanged on Monday.

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This daily briefing is curated from a wide range of reputable sources including news wires, research desks, and financial data providers. The insights presented here are a synthesis of key developments across global markets, intended to inform and spark thought.

No Investment Advice: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, recommendation, or endorsement.

Timing Note: Each edition is assembled based on the market context available at the time of writing. Timing, emphasis, and interpretations may vary depending on global developments and publishing windows.